In Oakland, 11% of Home Listings Are At Risk of Selling At a Loss

The housing market has cooled, and Oakland sellers are facing a new reality: less money for their homes

In Oakland, 11% of all listings are at risk of selling for less than homeowners bought them for. This is up from 6% last year and the third-largest share in the country among the top 50 metros. Nationally, 6% of sellers are at risk of losing money on a sale. 

However, the share varies widely depending on when someone bought their home.

• 32% of sellers who bought during the pandemic are at risk of losing money on the sale. Nationally, this share is just 9%.
• 24% of sellers who bought post-pandemic are at risk of losing money on the sale, above the 22% in San Francisco and 16% nationwide.
• 4% of sellers who bought pre-pandemic are at risk of losing money on the sale, with 2% in danger across the country.

Although Oakland is a relatively balanced market compared to cities like Austin, which is seeing a sharp decline in demand, prices have still dropped considerably as sellers outnumber buyers. The condo market is seeing the largest slowdown, with 23% at risk of selling at a loss compared to just 10% nationally.

That’s not to say Oakland home sellers will actually sell at a loss. Typically, sellers facing a financial loss will wait until they find a buyer willing to pay the asking price, take their home off the market, or rent it out. Plus, the vast majority of sellers still make money on their home sale. Nationwide, 94% of homes sell for more than they were purchased for, compared to just 37% in 2012.

How has Oakland’s housing market changed since the pandemic?

Oakland was hot during the pandemic. Homebuyers rushed to take advantage of historically low mortgage rates, snapping up available homes and draining the city’s limited supply – especially across the bridge. As a result, prices soared: From 2020 to 2022, the median sale price climbed to a record $1.1 million. 

Today, while Bay Area markets are still strong, they aren’t nearly as hot, with prices falling by $90,000 from their peak. This means that homeowners have lost some of the value they gained, putting them at risk of selling for less than they bought for. 

Falling prices would create a larger gap

If prices fall in line with Redfin forecasts by the end of the year, more sellers would be susceptible to losing money on their home. Even the least-affected metros – New Brunswick, NJ, and Providence, RI – would see notable increases. 

• If prices drop by the predicted 1%, 12% of Oakland listings would be at risk.
• If prices drop by 3%, 14% would be at risk.
• If prices drop 5%, 16% would be at risk.

Those who bought prior to the pandemic face the lowest risks of selling at a loss, but they’re also less likely to move in the first place due to their lower mortgage rates.

How buyers and sellers can navigate Oakland’s market

San Francisco’s housing market has shifted significantly since the pandemic, creating more opportunities for buyers and more pressure for sellers. 

• Buyers: With elevated housing costs and more homes on the market, buyers are generally in command in San Francisco. Competition can still be fierce at the highest price points, though. Buyers should come prepared to negotiate and move quickly when the right home comes along. 
• Sellers: Sellers generally don’t have the negotiating power they had during the pandemic, so they may need to offer incentives to attract the buyers braving today’s market.

Complete metro-level data

Methodology

Based on a Redfin report, which analyzed active listings on the MLS in May for the 50 largest U.S. metros. The report identifies the share of sellers at risk of selling at a loss, not the share of sellers who will actually sell their home at a loss, and does not take closing costs into account. We defined the pandemic as July 2020-July 2022, when home prices rose the most. Please see the original report’s methodology for complete details.

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